The expert and statistical method of estimation the parameters of control actions on building networks under uncertainty conditions

Known methods of definition the parameters of operating influences on engineering networks leave out of account the uncertainty at the organization of upkeep of buildings and their engineering networks. In these methods the interval before the next operating influence is considered as determined value or sometimes as a random variable. The urgency of the offered approach consists in the account of the actual conditions in management of engineering networks.

The work purpose is decreasing in level of uncertainty at estimation the parameters of management of engineering networks. The specified interval is considered as fuzzy variable; the apparatus of fuzzy logic is implemented at calculations.

The correction possibility for terms of carrying out of influences on engineering networks was estimated by means of expert poll. The level of confidence of expert estimations is characterized by the values of membership function of fuzzy value of the influence period. In the method the combination of the collected information on properties of change process of engineering network quality and results of expert poll is used. It allows to decrease uncertainty level at decision-making and to raise its validity.

The offered approach got numerical approval on the estimation of reliability indicators of ventilation system compressor and showed the working capacity. On basis of these results the area and conditions of method application are determined.