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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xml:lang="ru">
  <front xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="elibrary">75504</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Magazine of Civil Engineering</journal-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
          <trans-title>Magazine of Civil Engineering</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">2712-8172</issn>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">6</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5862/MCE.38.6</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>The organizational and technological reliability improvement in construction by using failure prediction method</article-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
          <trans-title>Повышение организационно-технологической надежности строительства линейно-протяженных сооружений методом прогнозирования отказов</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Abdullayev</surname>
            <given-names>Gasym</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Velichkin</surname>
            <given-names>Viktor</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
          <email>V.Velichkin2011@yandex.ru</email>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Soldatenko</surname>
            <given-names>Tamara</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"/>
          <email>soldatenko_tn@bk.ru</email>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff id="aff1">Peter the Great Saint Petersburg Polytechnic University</aff>
      <aff id="aff2">Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University</aff>
      <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2013-05-12">
        <day>12</day>
        <month>05</month>
        <year>2013</year>
      </pub-date>
      <issue>3</issue>
      <issue-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">38</issue-id>
      <fpage>43</fpage>
      <lpage>50</lpage>
      <self-uri xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" content-type="pdf" xlink:href="https://engstroy.spbstu.ru/userfiles/files/2013/3(38)/06.pdf"/>
      <abstract xml:lang="en">
        <p>The study shows how to assess the schedule reliability with available reserves of time in noncritical operations. The basis for assessing the reliability is the probability index of plan fulfillment, which is calculated according to known methods based on the beta-distributed random variables. The critical path operations postulate the highest probability of failures. Time reserves in non-critical operations of private flows have a compensating effect on the impact of the failures (delays) occurred on the critical path. The appropriate dependence for accounting time reserves in non-critical operations and calculated values of probability is proposed. In case of necessity of increasing the level of organizational and technical reliability the technique of changing the order of development of particular fronts based on the prediction of possible failures is proposed. The necessary computational techniques are given.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
        <kwd>planned schedule</kwd>
        <kwd>resource reserves</kwd>
        <kwd>reliability level</kwd>
        <kwd>organizational and technological reliability</kwd>
        <kwd>probability index</kwd>
        <kwd>failure and rejection</kwd>
        <kwd>refusals</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
